Analyst believes “Zero Percent Chance” of PS4 at E3 2012

Michael Pachter predicts zero percent chance of Sony reveal at E3 2012.

Analyst believes "Zero Percent Chance" of PS4 at E3 2012

Recently a rumor that broke from MCV that claimed both Microsoft and Sony were planning to reveal new consoles at E3 2012. The story generated a lot of buzz behind the next generation rumors, but one analyst has shot down the rumors, claiming " a zero percent chance" that Sony reveals new console at the show.

" I think there's a zero chance of a tease from Sony for PlayStation 4 and only a 20 percent chance from Microsoft that they'll tease the next Xbox," claimed the analyst. "Neither console is launching in 2013, so there's no reason to tease them in 2012." the analyst told financial publication Forbes Magazine.

A three console showing at E3 2012 would make it the best show in recent memory. This analyst's sentiments have recently been echoed by Sony, who have reiterated time and time again that they are committed to the PlayStation 3 for at least a 10 year cycle.

The only real reason you could see a tease from either company at this year's E3, is to steal some of the buzz from the show, since neither is expected to release a console in 2012.

By Al McCarthy on January 7, 2012

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69 COMMENTS

Jon
REPLY

Id love to see new consoles so pc games would start looking better. This is not good news:(
- Allen
  
  This analyst doesn’t make any sense.
  
  Sony and M$ reveling at E3 2012 is perfect, why would you tease something that was releasing that same year? Of course they aren’t releasing in 2012 but a E3 2012 tease for a 2013 release window is perfect and makes sense for both Xbox and Playstation.
  
  Reading these comments here others have taken the words out of my mouth, I was going to say these analysts are wrong more than weathermen and that it’s almost good to see analysts say something you hope isn’t true since it almost surely would be wrong.
Underworld
REPLY

What does Sony committing to a 10 year life cycle with the ps3, have to do with whether the ps4 will get a showing at E3 2012?

They can continue the ps3 lifespan for 10 years, while having the ps4 on the market as well. Which is what I think they mean.
- Anonymous Tom
  
  Not going to be like Microsoft and painstakingly try to eliminate anything having the do with the Original Xbox. I still won’t forgive them for that. I can still walk into GameStop and get a PlayStation 2, with games up to my ears for less than $60 (if that). Xbox? Not a goddamn thing. You’d be lucky to find an Original Xbox at a Goodwill….maybe.
- Allen
  
  Thank you, both of you…Exactly!
  
  PS2′s are still sold and supported today, freaking awesome. And that’s one of my complaints about Xbox (I call it a scam) is that as soon as 360 came they dropped all support for the original.
  
  And I still say 2013 release for PS4, that way PS3 can be the cheap alternative for 3 years after PS4 comes. Perfect
- Brian
  
  Xbox ran from 11/01 to 2/07, discontinued after losing a legal battle with Nvidia. Last game produced 8/08, Xbox live available until 4/10. I’m not saying Microsoft did a good job supporting the original Xbox, but ultimately they were forced to because of Nvidia and though the Sony really set the bar with doing a phenomenal job supporting PS2, the original Xbox lasted a lot longer then the average system, it was not dropped like Dreamcast, Saturn, or Jaguar like you imply.
  
  Honestly I really don’t care about the original Xbox, I didn’t own one and I doubt either of you did. But I know if I wanted to play an original xbox game I can buy the majority of them and just play it with my 360, unlike PlayStation. That’s the real scam, remove bakwards compatibly to encourage sales of an old system.
- Cool dude
  
  @Brian
  
  Dont tell Allen hard facts. He might rage.
- Allen
  
  Oh yeah…I forgot about that one minor thing. Okay so there’s only 13 major problems with Xbox 360. Thanks for the clarification.
  
  I do agree that taking backwards cap out sucks but you are off the deep end dude. Sure the guy that took that out needs to get shot, it was a stupid move and i know they lost customers because of it but get over it. It’s there for convenience. PS1 is still capable on all PS3′s. PS2′s are still sold and supported and the PS4 better damn be full backwards cap.
  
  A scam would be forcing someone to pay before paying to a sub to netflix. There is no reason behind it and you xbots run away from that.
  
  A scam would be forcing PC gamers to uprade to a new crappy OS just to play a game.
  
  A scam would be releasing a console that wasn’t ready just so you could gain market share.
  
  A scam would be releasing that same console knowing damn well that it will be highly suseptable to scratching disks because you were too cheap to put a $0.25 plastic buffer in it.
  
  A scam would be listing a game as “exclusive” when you know damn well it’s available on another gaming platform.
  
  But that’s okay. Hold onto the one and only thing you got against PS. At least if you hate them for that you have a reason…a stupid reason to hate them but whatever.
- bozmanbeyond
  
  Really A113n??? still on the scratching thing?? Who the hell in their right mind picks up their system while its on playing a game and moves it? Do you really sit there while playing a game on your PS3 and go, Oh wait I don’t like it there I’m going to move it here, no better yet over here, Damm I’m getting shot (balance PS3 on one knee and controller in hand) TAKE THAT YOU BASTARD!!! Okay it looks good here. I’ll tell you mine has been in same spot in the entertainment stand now for 5 years.
  
  Im guessing when you implying “exclusive” your referring to the 360 games that are also on PC right?? Question, who makes Windows and who makes the 360? Microsoft right?? So would that not be an “exclusive” for Microsoft?
- bozmanbeyond
  
  PS.. I do agree that paying for live to pay for netflix to use netflix is lame. But I have other devices that use apps like my TV, PS3, phone, tablet, PC, and now my blue-ray player in the bedroom so you really don’t need to use the 360 for that junk any more.
- Donky Dic
  
  Bozman, I just don’t agree.
  
  Exclusive means exclusive, if I can play xbox 360 exclusives without having to buy an xbox 360 then great. Also supporting M$ software is something I love. I do love Microsoft, I love windows. But that’s where my love for them ends.
  
  And yes, I do still think the disk scratching is a big deal. It’s the fact that M$ didn’t care when they found out and it’s the peace of mind. I can’t stress enoug how awesome blu ray is. First off I didn’t have to pay $99-$150 for a blu ray player on top of my $299 I paid for my PS3. 2nd PS3 doesn’t have the risk of scratching disks, even if it did blu ray has the hardest protective coat so “peace of mind” is priceless. 3rd – Millions of 360 games have ben ruined by the disk scratching. Fine if it didn’t happen to you but accidents happen, pets, kids, drunk friends, earthquakes there’s about a millions accidents that “could” happen.
  
  It’s just another thing to add on top of the many others, the mound of crap for xbox 360 is so tall that I can’t even see over it. Never have I seen so much wrong with a single electronics device and never have I cared. But this flat out scam, flat out rip off I just can’t stand by and let it go.
  
  All in all, it really doesn’t matter, xbox 360 is indeed fun to play but me….I will never…ever….in a million years support Xbox.
- Cool dude
  
  For all I know, Since ive got a 360 slim, the scratching never happened.
  
  Plus the scratching only happens when you move your Xbox like a mad man while playing a game.
- Alllen
  
  Actually no, apparently you just ran away from the 10 youtube video links I posted back in the day.
  
  All sorts of them showing from just picking it up and slightly putting it down. To dropping it, to letting it fall onto it’s side and right next to the PS3. The PS3 as you can imagine had no scratches, the 360 games were ruined.
  
  Besides, WTF it’s disk swapping and risk of scratching disks and even if it doesn’t get scratched to the point of no return then it will still get those minor scratches like PS2 games did last gen. no matter what I did it would scratch and I take better care of my stuff than anyone else i know.
  
  Blu ray – I’ve had 5 PS3 games fused together with Soda and who knows what else that I pulled from my mother and father in law’s rental. I soaked them in warm water and cleaned them all off. No scratches and without even the game cases those 5 games got me $30 at Software Ect. Not trade in, cash.
  
  If those were 360 games it would have been garbage.
- Cool dude
  
  Ok??? So disk swapping? I dont really get bothered by it…
  
  If I were you, id stay away from youtube for Console wars. Ugh… little kids blabbering about their consoles.
  
  Plus, well good for the Ps3 for not scratching the disk when the console was being tossed around.
  
  Because people do that everyday with their consoles. Right Allen?
- Cool dude
  
  A scam would be releasing a console that wasn’t ready just so you could gain market share.
  
  Why is that a scam when its a marketing strategy… See how biased you are?
  
  Pfft… pathetic
- Cool dude
  
  “A scam would be releasing that same console knowing damn well that it will be highly suseptable to scratching disks because you were too cheap to put a $0.25 plastic buffer in it.”
  
  MS had 69 days to manufacture Xbox 360s till the release. Do you think they can afford delays?
- Alllen
  
  You are totally right cool dude!
  
  I think every company should release a piece of $hit early just to be out first as a stratagy. Bravo! What a great idea. Sure the customers are the one’s that will have to deal with calling customer service, waiting for packaging and ship labels, waiting for transit to M$, waiting for repair, waiting for transit back to you just for it to $hit out on you 4 more times before m$ tells you to Fk off. God M$ is so cool! What a great stratagy.
  
  While your at it, you can charge $299 for outdated hardware! People will love it.
- Alllen
  
  And bravo again about the $0.25 plastic buffer!
  
  It will delay their precious launch time, so they decided to make the consumer suffer again. That’s okay, the customer will have to pay $60 for a new game if it’s ruined and M$ gets to sit back and watch the xbots defend the 360 to their death. And you just keep acting like no one has lost disks due to this. It wasn’t made a big deal about and lawsuit becuase some fanboy was complaining. People lost games and movies.
- reality
  
  No Allen, stupid people lost games and movies. I have never had a single disc scratch in the 6 years I’ve owned a 360. I don’t have scratched disc problems because I am an adult and know how to take care of my things. I have had 1 disc get stuck in my PS3 that gave me the YLOD after 4 years though, go figure.
- Ceroon
  
  @Allen
  
  And look where we are now. How the mighty have fallen. Xbox 360 eventually outselling Ps3. I guess the marketing strategy worked.
- Allen
  
  That doesn’t even make any sense. Even with outselling PS3 during the holdiays, I highly doubt xbox sold more in 2011 than PS3. Only 1 month xbox outsold PS3 and that was December. Yes a big month but it’s not like PS3 just sat idly by, they sold like hot cakes too.
- Cool dude
  
  @Allen
  
  I back Ceroon’s claim
  
  http://www.vgchartz.com/article/88700/microsoft-x360-shipments-reach-66m-kinect-more-than-18m-globally/
- Dovahkiin
  
  I’m pretty sure that Microsoft has made more money with the Xbox than Sony has with the PS3
- Allen
  
  You guys are morons. 360 got it’s ass handed to it all year long and PS3 was right behind 360 in holiday sales.
  
  Also perfect example of you xbots – when your getting your ass handed to you sales don’t matter. Since you won in holiday sales they do matter. Perfect example of how you got nothing so gotta try and make stuff up about PS in order to say anything bad about them.
  
  Xbox Blows
- Anonymous Tom
  
  LOL @ Brian. Saying he thinks I didn’t have an Original Xbox. Don’t make judgments. I did in fact have an original Xbox. For someone who never apparently owned one, you shouldn’t do that. I loved the shit outta my Original Xbox, as a matter of fact, I still consider it better than Xbox 360. Back then, you weren’t forced to be on Xbox Live, hell, the games didn’t need to rely on Xbox Live to be good. Everything now is “Join Xbox Live!….DO IT NOW!” w/ very little in the playing field besides BioShock and some others. Hell, finished GTA IV and what else is there? If I didn’t have XBL, that game’d sitting on a shelf at GameStop. So, in closing, Brian. Fuck off.
That Guy
REPLY

please dont be michael pachter, please dont be michael pachter, please dont be michael pachter.
*reads article*
FFFFFFUUUUUUUUUU-
Bacon
REPLY

Pachter did say the wii hd was coming out during the holiday season….for the past 2 years
1verce
REPLY

how is it 0% chance when a european and ign claimed it was 100% true, i think it should make an appearance.
Anonymous Tom
REPLY

This (Michael Pachter) is the same dumb fuck that said Microsoft & Sony “will announce their respective console(s) at E3 2012″. I think he should just shut the fuck up. He also said “Grand Theft Auto is losing to Call of Duty”, whatever the fuck THAT means. What a fucking idiot. First of all, he said this before MW3 was released and reviewed. (MW3 to this day still has a User Rating of 3.2) as well as before GTA V was even announced. What’s next? Ol’ Mikey going to say that Blu-Ray is going to be phased out by moon rocks?
asdf
REPLY

that patcher dude should take an arrow to the knee.
njb
REPLY

@jon

We all know An up to date and high end PC has fancier graphics, but the big picture is that not everyone has the money or the comitment.

u can buy a console and be playin games in mins. PC not as simple and alot of ppl dont have the time either.

Im not sayin PC is bad, Just Gaming or high end rigs wont ever be cheap enough for everyone to buy.

And to be honest most PC exclusives dont appeal to alot of ppl.

RTS and Indie games is all their really is. DOnt get me wrong I love the occasional RTS game. But their is nothing like Killzone or uncharted on PC.
Hoppsy
REPLY

as soon as i see pachters name i instantly ignore the article
Bacon
REPLY

@asdf he did which is why he sits down when answering questions lol
Br@D
REPLY

They get paid to make predictions. And most of the time they are wrong. Analyst are pointless.
Xsniper
REPLY

i want a nextbox
bozmanbeyond
REPLY

“Michael Pachter predicts” key word here is not predicts. Its ONE man assuming that PS4 wont show and tell. Predict is just another word for assume. And we all know what assume means right? Ass-U-Me. So he’s trying to make an ass out of you and me.
Jon
REPLY

I want to see the new ps4\xbox720 more than anyone guys and it upsets me that.But (most likely and sadly) we will not see it this year. Its about money and they are going to milk it for a bit longer, Its no good for us to get mad about it. But I feel everyones pain .
reality
REPLY

These analysts are like the weathermen of the gaming industry, their job is guessing, sometimes they’re right, most of the time they’re wrong. Weathermen have a better track record with technology and all, but a base comparison.
reality
REPLY

@Anon(rest is covered) who cares about user reviews? 3.2 average from a bunch of Battlefield fanboys trolling a review system. I guarantee the review comments made are up the same alley as Allen and his bullshit. Now, I’m not saying that MW3 deserves a 10/10 or anything, more like a 7/10 at this juncture, and an 8.5-9/10 if they would fix the online multiplayer. Just saying that the best user review is your own review.
- Tim
  
  nono, I’ve been to a couple of forums and seen loads, and I mean loads, of hate for MW3. The Rip off Elite system, same repetitve gameplay and boring maps, overpowered perks and guns (one that is particularly promiment is the Striker) are the reasons that keep on popping up. And these reasons don’t come up from BF fanboys at all. Most of the complaints come from CoD players who have been playing since CoD 1, 2, or 3.
  
  Another reason that it gets such a bad score is because most of the reviews come from the PC players, and they are treated like a pile of dog crap from Activision. They don’t even get half the game thet console players have, you can look on youtube to see why and how.
  
  The last point I will give is that the vast majority of the trolling BF fanboys are previous CoD kids who have recently turned over a new leaf and suddenly realise how crap CoD is. THEY are the trollers. The vast majority people who played BF2 and before are MATURE and definately don’t spread stupid comments.
Cool dude
REPLY

I guess well just have to wait and see.
- Allen
  
  Thanks for the thumbs down cool dude. I know it was you because I was on here when you did it. It’s good to see that even when I don’t troll that you thumb me down. Not much incentive for me to ever stop trolling about Xbox.
- Cool dude
  
  So does that mean its always me and nobody else? Well, thanks for the rude accusation but it wasnt me… jerk.
- Allen
  
  That’s funny, because I had no thumbs down. Then less than 1 minute later I saw you made a comment and lord behold I got 1 thumbs down on both my comments.
  
  Fine, it’s possible it wasn’t you so I apologize.
- Cool dude
  
  Im not the only one who goes to this site you know. Plus, thumbing up or down a person doesnt require a registration.
- Allen
  
  Yeah but there aren’t exactly many thumbs on this page, I still say it was you. Not like it matters, you are entitled to your opinion. So am I….xbox sucks! He he
- Cool dude
  
  Gaystation!… Hehe
- Alllen
  
  I thumbed you up, that was funny.
abc
REPLY

allen is getting a lot of hate out here.

maybe its paul, allen’s no. 1 homo fan.
reality
REPLY

Don’t forget to mention shortly after PS1 classics hit the store, and now PS2 classics are coming out. That’s the true reason reason backwards compatability was removed, to double dip, and sell more PS2 consoles.
- Allen
  
  Dude Reality you are so freaking lame, I just can’t fathom why you have to stoop to such low of a level.
  
  PS3 is backwards capable with PS1 games. PS2 is still sold and supported to this day and I do agree that Sony taking backwards cap out is the worst thing they’ve ever done.
  
  But you need to remember who was the first to do backwards capability. Sony. Before them no one had it, Nintendo did great with the Wii – which per you Reality means that Nintendo is what…Tripple dipping? NES, SNES & N64 games sold on the Wii virtual console.
  
  But I don’t look at it like that. I look at it as I already own these games but it may be worth it to me to buy them and put them on my new elite console. Same goes with PS3.
  
  I would seriously like to call up Sony Marketing and be like WTF?
  
  (1) they need to advertise free online play a whole lot more (2) they need to advertise Xbox’s faults (3) the person(s) responsible for removing backwards cap need to be shot…oh this is Japan…they need to commit ritual suicide
- Cool dude
  
  Reason:
  1 They already are.
  
  2 Thats Mud slinging.
  
  If you were the Playstation advertising manager. You could’ve killed the brand years ago.
  
  MS are the masters of advertising.
- Alllen
  
  Not really. Last commercial I saw it was barely mentioned and come to think of it, that was the one and only time I’ve ever seen them advertise it.
  
  Yes I know it’s mud slinging. But they should do it – it would really be perfect in the situation they are in now. Everyone in the world has no idea, in fact I just schooled this young ex Marine IT help desk guy. You would think these IT people would have some idea, especially considering he’s a gamer but no. He didn’t even know what RROD was.
  
  Sony needs to use RROD, pay to play, lack of blu ray and expensive proprietary hardware against M$. In a mud slinging battle Sony has a mile high mound to use against M$ but M$ only has a tiny mud puddle to use against Sony.
- Cool dude
  
  Gamers themselves would get enraged by this stupid mud slinging (even PS gamers).
  
  Who knows, if they actually did it, Anonymous might come back.
  
  Microsoft would eventually say:
  
  There are reasons why Xbox 360 never had blu ray. (2005 release, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_definition_optical_disc_format_war)
  
  There are reasons why Xbox Live is Pay to play. (Well, MS will just say that Xbox Live does everything then Sony would be embarrassed)
  
  And RROD never happens anymore. (MS would show the reliability of their current models)
  
  Look, your thinking like a 10 year old fanboy who just want MS do die. Get over it. Stop going to youtube and trolling people.
  
  Are you just angry that Xbox 360… won 2011?
  
  Hahahaahahahahaahaaaaa in your face!!!!
  
  Nah jokes :-)
- Alllen
  
  In one ear out the other.
  
  So RROD doesn’t happen any more then huh? So it’s the xbox slims that are failing at 10%, over 3 times the industry standard. Then it’s still the biggest POS i’ve ever seen.
  
  I don’t understand your loyalty at all. m$ sucks so damn bad, all the good is on PS court and all the bad in M$. it’s disgusting.
- Cool dude
  
  Ahem.. That 10% was a combination of ALL Xbox 360 models.
  
  Youve seen the article with your own eyes. READ
- Allen
  
  Well I thought you just said that RROD doesnt’ happen any more. And if you are blaming it on the old console then wouldn’t the failure rate be higher than 33-55%? In the end is 100% of them failing?
  
  Ha ha, it doesn’t matter. Xbox sucks so damn bad. I would hate to be an xbot.
- Cool dude
  
  I said CURRENT MODELS. I wasnt saying anything about the old models.
  
  Of course everything fails of old age and too much use. You might as well call PS3 to have a 100% failure rate because nothing lasts forever. And you dont understand Industry standard Failure rates do you? These data are recorded for a period of TWO years. Because gaming consoles are considered physical technologies which are supposed to last for 2 years at the maximum.
  
  Do you get what im saying?
  
  And please define “Xbot”
  
  Does it mean an average Xbox 360 gamer?
- Allen
  
  What the hell ever dude.
  
  Every console I have ever purchased I still have and they still work:
  
  NES, Sega Genesis, Super Nintendo, PS1, PS2 & PS3
  
  I don’t care how anyone else takes it, Xbots are just xbox gamers. I don’t really mean too much by it, maybe some blind loyalty there but it doesn’t really matter.
reality
REPLY

No one moves the console when its on, therefore the disc scratching is moot. I’d rather have a disc get scratched than stuck in a drive, but that’s just me.
Seriously Allen it’s time for you to look into getting a life outside this website, not a very good example you’re setting for your ‘kids.’
- Alllen
  
  Yeah because games beign stuck in the PS3 or any slot device is a huge issue. Oh wait…no it’s not.
- reality
  
  Just like how scratched discs are not an issue for a mass majority of 360 owners.
- Cool dude
  
  @ Reality. The Console that Allen just called POS just won an award for innovation!
  
  http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/11/4179291/microsofts-new-xbox-360-on-demand.html
- Allen
  
  Those do not compare. I’ve never known slots to eat disks, it’s the way just about all laptops are going, Wii has a slot and doesn’t have that issue, PS3 has that slot and doesn’t have an issue. All the all in one computers for both PC and Mac are slots. But xbox 360 disk scratchig is an issue. Fine if it’s minor, but there is no denying that it’s an issue and that M$ did nothing about it. Adding the disk swapping and, well if it doesn’t bother you then fine.
  
  But to me it would feel like flying an F-16 and calling it a 5th generation fighter….it’s just not.
- Cool dude
  
  “flying an F-16″
  
  Where in Bf3? Mee too :-D
- Allen
  
  I wish..I love the F-16. You know they actually intentionally made that plane slightly unstable.