CNN’s Harry Enten warns Democrats their path to the White House is collapsing, and he’s got the numbers to prove it

Data analyst Harry Enten is warning Democrats across the country that recent population trends show their long-term path to the White House is falling apart. This comes even as the party celebrates a surprise special election win in Texas.

The Texas victory was certainly unexpected. Taylor Rehmet, a local union leader running for the first time, won a state senate seat with 57 percent of the vote compared to 43 percent. This happened in a district that heavily supports conservatives, where President Trump won by more than 17 points in 2024.

Democrats have reason to feel excited about the November midterms after this win. However, Enten’s analysis of population data paints a much darker picture for the party’s future. According to Mediaite, Enten appeared on a Sunday news program to discuss the numbers, moving the conversation from short-term victories to long-term changes he finds deeply worrying for the left.

Population shifts are creating serious problems for Democrats

He said these trends “really should set off a flashing red siren to Democrats nationwide, while bringing a big smile to the faces of Republicans nationwide.” The problem centers on where Americans are choosing to live.

The five states with the biggest population growth since the 2020 Census all voted for President Trump in 2024: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Meanwhile, people are leaving blue states in large numbers. CNN has been covering various political tensions recently, including protests against ICE operations across major cities.

The five states losing the most people through domestic migration this decade all went to former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Americans are actively leaving states Harris won and moving to states President Trump won.

This shift has major political consequences, especially for the 2030 Census. U.S. House seats get redistributed based on population counts. If current trends continue until 2030, states Harris won would lose seven House seats, while states President Trump won would gain seven seats. That’s a swing of 14 seats total. Meanwhile, CNN’s coverage of immigration enforcement has shown how divisive these issues remain.

The Electoral College impact is even more serious. Each state gets electoral votes equal to its number of senators (two) plus its House seats. Harris’s 2024 strategy relied on winning baseline Democratic states plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

That combination currently gives exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win. But if 2025 population estimates are applied to Electoral College math, that same strategy would only produce 263 electoral votes, guaranteeing a Republican victory. Enten concluded by saying “we got a red state boom going on, a blue state depression going on, people moving from the blue states to the red states.”