Israel is publicly calling on Iranians to rise up, but a leaked cable shows Israeli officials privately told U.S. the protesters would be massacred

A recently reviewed U.S. State Department cable shows that senior Israeli officials privately believe Iranian protesters would be “slaughtered” if they take to the streets, even as Israel publicly calls for a popular uprising inside Iran. The cable was circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and relayed a grim Israeli assessment to American diplomats.

Israeli officials told U.S. diplomats that Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and is willing to “fight to the end.” They believe that if large numbers of Iranians return to the streets, “the people will get slaughtered” because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “has the upper hand.” This assessment came after the February 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which Israel had initially expected to cause “more chaos” within the regime.

Despite this bleak forecast, Israeli officials still expressed hope for a popular revolt and urged the United States to prepare to support protesters. According to The Washington Post, these private discussions involved senior members of Israel’s National Security Council, Ministry of Defense, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Israel’s public calls for an uprising clash sharply with its private belief that protesters will be killed

Publicly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on the “brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of this murderous regime.” Israel has also been making bold claims about its military operations, though some of Israel’s recent battlefield claims have been difficult to verify. Israeli security cabinet member Ze’ev Elkin has stated that “Every day that we weaken this regime is a gain for the state of Israel.”

Iran expert Narges Bajoghli of Johns Hopkins University said these dual messages will likely be seen as exploitative of Iranian lives, adding that “a lot of people will feel very betrayed by this assessment.” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said it would be “unfortunate if they were used as pawns in an effort to try to further inflame the situation.”

President Trump initially urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but has since acknowledged that Iran’s security forces would kill protesters. He told Fox News, “They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine-gunning people down if they want to protest,” adding that it’s a “big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons.”

Israeli officials also underestimated the regime’s ability to continue launching ballistic missiles and drones “everywhere they want to” despite heavy U.S.-Israeli strikes. Maloney called this a “badly informed assumption,” suggesting it “lies at the root of the strategic miscalculation that Israel and the U.S. together blundered into.”

The late supreme leader’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly “still in charge” and “more aligned” with hard-liners than his father. The war is now in its third week with no clear end in sight. 

The conflict has also been spreading beyond Iran’s borders, with Israel’s ground fighting taking a dangerous turn in Lebanon, drawing concern from European leaders. Bajoghli said Israel’s push for an uprising aligns with its long-held goal of “fragmentation of Iran” and “state collapse,” adding that “The goal is not creating a liberal democracy for the Iranian people. It’s widening the chasm between the society and the state.”