‘Speaking with American Men’ costs $20 million when Democrats could just nominate a man instead

Recent data analysis reveals a clear pattern in the Democratic Party’s presidential elections: male voter support significantly drops when a woman heads the ticket, and rebounds when a man is nominated. This trend, observed over the last four presidential elections, suggests a straightforward solution to the party’s ongoing struggle with male voters.

According to Catalist, a progressive data analysis organization, the 2024 election showed a substantial decline in male support for the Democratic ticket. While women maintained their support levels for Kamala Harris compared to Joe Biden in 2020, male backing dropped from 48% to 42%, resulting in an 11-point shift toward Republicans.

According to MSNBC, The New York Times reported that Democratic donors are considering a $20 million “strategic plan” called “Speaking with American Men” to study male voter behavior and language that gains traction in male spaces. However, historical voting patterns suggest this investment might be unnecessary if the party simply nominates male candidates.

Male voter support shows a consistent pattern across demographic groups

The decline in male support was widespread across various demographics in 2024. White men showed a four-point drop, Black men a seven-point decrease, and Latino men demonstrated a 12-point decline. Young voters between 18 and 29 exhibited a particularly striking gender gap of 17 points, with male support falling from 55% in 2020 to 46% in 2024.

Similar patterns emerged in previous elections. When Hillary Clinton ran in 2016, the gender gap increased to 12 points from Obama’s eight-point gap in 2012. Under Biden in 2020, it decreased to nine points, only to widen again to 13 points with Harris in 2024. Notably, female support remained relatively constant throughout these elections, with only male support showing significant fluctuations.

The trend is particularly visible among white non-college-educated voters. While women in this demographic maintained steady support levels since 2012, men showed a six-point drop from 2012 to 2016, followed by a two-point increase in 2020, and another three-point decline in 2024.

This pattern highlights a persistent challenge for the Democratic Party in presidential elections. The United States remains one of the few Western democracies that has never elected a female head of state, despite increasing female representation in Congress, which has grown from 105 members in 2017 to 151 today. While female candidates have made significant progress in congressional elections, the presidency appears to face unique challenges regarding gender dynamics in voter support.