House Speaker Mike Johnson claims the polling data is all wrong. Then he tells the rally in Texas why he thinks they are actually winning

House Speaker Mike Johnson told a crowd in Corpus Christi, Texas, that public polls are missing a shift he sees among voters in competitive House districts. The event was organized to support Republican candidates across the state ahead of the midterm elections.

Johnson said the surveys that currently show strong Democratic chances do not match what he observes while traveling. He described a different energy in the places expected to determine which party controls the House.

The speaker has repeatedly argued that many Republican voters simply refuse to participate in polling. Other GOP leaders have made the same claim when rejecting forecasts that Democrats will gain the House and could also take the Senate.

Speaker points to empty responses at his own events as evidence

Johnson opened his remarks by stressing his direct contact with key races. “From my birds-eye view — I am there on the ground in the swing districts that are going to decide the majority, and I am telling you something is happening right now,” he said, according to AL.com.

He then compared the present mood to the last presidential cycle. “It feels like 2024 to me,” Johnson added. “I’m telling you, the polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what’s really happening. They’re undersampling Republicans, they’re oversampling Democrats.”

Turning to the audience, he asked a direct question about participation. “How many of you have answered a political poll in the last six months? No, nobody,” Johnson said after receiving no response.

He expanded on the pattern he has noticed while campaigning. “I’m telling ya, I go to airplane hangars and big arenas like this all over the country,” Johnson explained. “I can’t find anybody who’s coming to our events who’s actually answered a poll.” He has also warned voters about free-things promises on the campaign trail. 

Johnson tied the reluctance back to earlier elections. “Republicans don’t trust pollsters anymore, OK?” he said, pointing to the 2016 results as support for his view. The account of the rally notes that undersampling of Republicans who avoid surveys has become a regular argument from leaders such as Johnson. It also states that pollsters have adjusted their methods to address the issue since 2016.