Republicans backed ICE for months, but January polling shows something finally cracked

For months, Republicans have been the most reliable supporters of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, but new polling conducted in late January suggests that confidence among GOP voters has begun to erode. As reported by The Hill, the shift is statistically significant and marks a sharp break from trends seen just weeks earlier.

In mid-December, 69 percent of Republicans said they had confidence in ICE, a figure that barely changed two weeks ago at 68 percent. The latest survey, conducted between January 23 and January 26, shows that the number is falling to 60 percent, representing a notable decline over a short period. This shift comes amid broader reporting on federal enforcement actions and reactions, including recent coverage about how authorities are detaining children in controversial operations to use them as bait in Minnesota.

Among Republicans, 31 percent now say they have a great deal of confidence in the agency, while 29 percent report having quite a lot. At the same time, the share of GOP respondents who say they have very little confidence doubled from 8 percent two weeks ago to 16 percent in the most recent poll.

The timing of recent incidents appears to matter

The decline does not appear to be happening in isolation. It coincides with a shift in tone from some Republican officials who have become more openly critical of ICE enforcement tactics following two fatal officer-involved shootings in Minneapolis. Analysts have tied these reactions to other contentious federal enforcement stories, including recent scrutiny over how ICE is depicted and discussed on social platforms about photo manipulation targeting protesters.

The first incident occurred on January 7, when an ICE officer fatally shot 37-year-old Renee Good during a confrontation while she was in her vehicle. A second incident followed when 37-year-old Minneapolis resident Alex Pretti was fatally shot by a Border Patrol agent on a Saturday, further intensifying scrutiny.

Because roughly three-quarters of respondents took the survey after the Pretti shooting, the timing suggests these events played a role in shaping public opinion. The reaction has also reached the White House, where President Donald Trump appears to have distanced himself from members of his administration who quickly defended the agent involved in the Pretti case.

The shift is not limited to Republican voters. Independent respondents are showing a similar decline in trust, with 67 percent now saying they have very little confidence in ICE, up from 54 percent two weeks earlier and 49 percent in mid-December.

Across all respondents, 55 percent of Americans now report having very little confidence in the agency, compared to 45 percent last month. The survey included 1,684 adults and carries a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, reinforcing that the decline in confidence, particularly among Republicans, is statistically significant.