An ex-PM called Orbán “Trump with brains” days before the election, then the results came in and now his thinktank job may not exist anymore

Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on Hungary has ended, and the fallout is already reaching beyond Budapest. As first highlighted by The Guardian, former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott now faces an uncertain future at the Danube Institute, a conservative thinktank in Budapest where he has served as a senior visiting fellow since 2023. The institute’s funding has been tied to the Fidesz-led government, and with Orbán’s party reduced to just 55 of 199 parliamentary seats, that relationship is now in question.

The opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, secured at least 138 seats, a two-thirds supermajority that grants the new government the authority to amend the constitution. Abbott was at the Danube Institute just days before the result came in, appearing on a podcast where he described Orbán as “Trump with brains” and called him “Hungary’s greatest modern leader.” He explained the comparison by saying he viewed Orbán as a passionate nationalist who thinks deeply rather than speaks without consideration, while noting it was not meant as a slight against Donald Trump.

Abbott’s admiration for Orbán goes back further than his formal fellowship role, and he has long held the administration’s policies up as models worth studying, particularly on immigration and family policy.

Abbott’s public comments landed just before the political ground shifted under him

Following the election, Abbott posted on social media suggesting he did not expect the new government to change Budapest’s status as a hub for conservative intellectuals. He praised the city’s transformation and pointed to Hungary’s pronatalist family policies and cultural preservation efforts as examples that have drawn international attention.

He also defended Orbán’s defiance of the European Union on immigration, writing that no sovereign nation should be bullied by Brussels into policies that would jeopardize its future as a distinct people. Abbott made similar remarks in 2019 regarding migration across the continent.

The EU had already suspended billions of euros in funding to Hungary over rule-of-law concerns before the election, wielding economic leverage as a tool of political pressure in a manner that has become a recurring feature of its disputes with member states, not unlike how the US has used economic threats against other governments to force compliance on security issues. The transition to Magyar’s government opens the possibility of those frozen funds being released.

Abbott also touched on Australia’s own immigration debate during his Danube Institute appearance, arguing that because birthrates are declining, Australia’s current reliance on record levels of migration is not a sustainable model. He expressed a preference for lower migration and a greater focus on raising Australian children, positioning Hungary’s pronatalist approach as something Australian conservatives should examine closely. The broader significance of Orbán’s defeat for the international conservative movement was underscored by the fact that far-right groups globally had long treated him as a governing template, and amid signs of fracture in that network, including tensions within Trump’s own inner circle of allies, the loss in Hungary adds further instability.

Whether the Danube Institute can sustain its operations without government backing under the new Magyar administration remains unresolved, leaving Abbott’s role there in doubt.