Gas prices jump 32 percent in weeks after Trump’s strikes, and one move from Iran could make it worse

Gas prices across the nation have jumped 32 percent over the past month, pushing the average cost of regular unleaded to $3.84 a gallon after President Donald Trump launched strikes on Iran alongside Israel. Oil prices have continued climbing, reaching nearly $110 a barrel this week, with further increases at the pump looking likely.

As reported by The Washington Post, the latest surge accelerated after attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday. The field, which Qatar also operates in part to the north, became a flashpoint that prompted Tehran to warn that energy infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia would now be considered legitimate targets.

Iran moved quickly after those threats. Later on Wednesday, Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that the country’s armed forces had struck “US-linked oil facilities in the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran’s oil facilities,” while QatarEnergy said Ras Laffan Industrial City had been hit by rocket attacks that caused “significant damage,” and Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses intercepted a ballistic threat targeting Riyadh.

The market response has been limited so far

President Trump has made conflicting statements about when the war might end, amid NATO Hormuz pressure, and his administration’s efforts to ease oil price increases have had little visible effect. On Wednesday, he issued a 60-day suspension of the Jones Act, which normally prohibits foreign vessels from shipping oil and gas between U.S. ports, in an effort to increase the number of ships available to move fuels across the country.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “President Trump’s decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.” The U.S. shipping industry pushed back, with the American Maritime Partnership warning that the waiver might be illegal and would reduce gas prices by “less than one penny per gallon.”

Analysts largely agreed, describing the move as symbolic and expecting any effect on prices to amount to only a couple of pennies at most. The suspension appeared to do little to calm oil markets, with Brent crude up more than 6 percent by late morning Wednesday.

The administration also issued a waiver authorizing U.S. firms to do business with Venezuela’s state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela. That move lifted sanctions that had made it harder for Venezuela to export crude, while a separate temporary easing on Russian oil already at sea was intended to reduce global prices after lawmakers criticized it for potentially helping fund Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Neither of those actions, nor the release of 415 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, has stopped oil prices from rising. A major driver remains the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point that handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil.

The U.S. military’s inability to guarantee safe passage through the strait has disrupted oil markets, leaving Persian Gulf states scrambling to redirect crude and natural gas shipments while tankers sit idle and storage fills up. That pressure has forced oil companies to reduce output and consider shutting down facilities that could take weeks to bring back to full production.

The broader economic pressure is already coming into view as higher gas prices and more expensive airline tickets add to inflation concerns. The political backdrop has also included treason-charge rhetoric toward reporters. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said, “The net of the oil shock will still be some downward pressure on spending and employment and upward pressure on inflation,” while noting the full economic impact remains unclear.

Market research firm Capstone said “Gulf oil export infrastructure remains in Iran’s crosshairs, with risk premiums poised to widen if struck.” Analysts at Citi expect Brent prices could reach $120 in the next few days, a level that could push the national average price of gas above $4 a gallon.