Trump told the world the Iran war was nearly won, but behind closed doors his own allies are warning him that the hardest part hasn’t even started yet

As the conflict with Iran enters its third week, President Donald Trump is facing difficult choices, despite his public claims that the war is nearly over. The United States and Israel are dealing with a growing conflict that has serious military, diplomatic, and economic consequences.

Trump brought the US into this war alongside Israel, making it the biggest Middle East conflict in nearly 25 years. While the administration points to real military gains, including crippling Iran’s missile arsenal, air defenses, and navy, and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an empowered theocracy still holds power. Khamenei’s injured son has reportedly taken command, vowing to continue using cyberattacks, sea mines, and missile strikes.

The economic damage has been significant. According to The New York Times, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut down, pushing oil prices to around $100 a barrel and causing insurance costs for ships in the Persian Gulf to surge. Trump posted on social media asking China, France, Japan, South Korea, and Britain to send naval forces to help secure the strait, a clear sign that the US needs outside help.

The war’s true costs are becoming harder for Trump to ignore

Thirteen Americans have been killed, and more than 2,100 people have died since the war began, most of them in Iran, including over 1,348 civilians as of Wednesday, according to Iran’s UN representative. The US is sending an additional 2,500 Marines to the region, adding to the 50,000 already there.

There is growing concern within Trump’s political base, which has historically opposed foreign military involvement. This war adds to a string of controversial moves, including his recent effort to remove a sitting Republican from office, that have unsettled even his own allies. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “made the decision to take the short-term risk to oil prices for the long-term benefit of wiping out the threat that Iran poses to the United States.” 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran’s conventional military has been “quickly destroyed and made combat-ineffective,” with 90 percent fewer missile launches and 95 percent fewer drone attacks. Despite these gains, Iran’s ability to cause disruption continues. 

Its cyber unit has been activated, targeting entities in both Israel and the US. Stryker Corporation, a medical equipment company in Michigan, had its systems taken down last week, with a group called Handala claiming responsibility in response to a US missile strike on a school in Iran. The US-Israel relationship is also showing cracks. 

Netanyahu reportedly ignored advice from Trump and US Central Command by striking oil depots near Tehran, causing oil prices to spike and triggering more Iranian drone attacks. White House officials believe Netanyahu wanted dramatic images of destruction, but it only invited more retaliation.  Security concerns are also growing closer to home, with reports that Trump’s private contact details being sold on Washington’s black market have alarmed his own aides. 

Looking ahead, Trump faces two major decisions: whether to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export port, and whether to raid a facility storing near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel deep inside Iran.  Both carry enormous risks. On seizing the nuclear material, Trump himself said, “We’re nowhere near it”, suggesting this conflict still has a long way to go.