‘Simply not true’: Economist debunks popular claim about what’s really keeping U.S. economy alive

Artificial intelligence spending wasn’t the main force driving the U.S. economy in 2025, despite all the attention it received. Many people believed that massive AI investments and rising tech company values were saving the economy. However, recent economic research shows this idea is exaggerated.

According to CNBC, the real driver of economic growth is much more traditional: American consumers. Consumer spending was the most important contributor to U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth last year. AI-related spending came in second, but it wasn’t the economic lifeline that many experts thought it was.

Prajakta Bhide, a U.S. economic strategist at MRB Partners, published a report in January explaining this important difference. She pointed out that the idea of the economy collapsing without AI spending is simply wrong.

The consumer economy remains stronger than AI-driven growth

“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part of the growth story,” Bhide said. “That’s a narrative that’s out there, that if we didn’t have the AI capex, GDP would have slumped last year. And that’s simply not true.” She emphasized that the U.S. consumer still drives economic expansion.

The confusion is understandable. The AI boom completely changed market values, leading to huge investments and record bond sales to build giant data centers. Major projects like Meta’s 5-gigawatt “Hyperion” data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, which was under construction on January 9, 2026, show the scale of these investments.

However, the way GDP is calculated reveals why AI’s real impact is smaller than expected. GDP measures domestic production, and most high-tech equipment for AI infrastructure is imported. This means its contribution to U.S. GDP is less than it appears. While economic challenges continue globally, with Venezuela’s recent warnings to the U.S. making headlines, domestic economic fundamentals remain the key focus for analysts.

Without adjusting for imports, AI-related investments seemed to add about 0.9% to real GDP growth on average between the first and third quarters of 2025. That’s roughly 40% of average real GDP growth during that period. But after accounting for imported computers, semiconductors, and telecom equipment, AI’s actual contribution drops significantly.

Bhide’s research shows that after these adjustments, AI’s impact was only between 0.4% and 0.5%, representing just 20% to 25% of real GDP growth during the first three quarters. Interestingly, investments in software and regular computer equipment contributed more to GDP growth in 2025 than building massive data centers. 

Another firm confirmed in December that AI-related spending accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025, with less than 5% of total GDP. Meanwhile, consumer financial health remains critical, especially as Trump’s proposed credit card interest cap continues to generate debate among financial experts.