Oil just hit a 14-month high, but analysts are warning that $100 per barrel could just be the beginning

Brent crude has surged to a 14-month high, jumping 13% to hit $82 per barrel. The spike comes amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which are threatening to disrupt global shipping lanes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are already warning that $100 per barrel may just be the beginning.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supplies and a large number of seaborne gas tankers pass through. Any disruption there sends immediate shockwaves across the energy market. With the current conflict, concerns about oil supplies being cut off are driving prices higher.

Within hours of the US-Israeli strikes, Iran reportedly warned that no ships would be allowed through the strait. While Tehran has not officially confirmed a full blockage, marine tracking sites are already showing tankers piling up on both sides of the waterway. According to The Guardian, The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported two ships being attacked in the strait, one off Oman and another off the UAE.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is creating a supply shock that spare capacity cannot easily fix

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has urged ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has effectively shut down this critical oil chokepoint, though some tankers are still attempting to push through the strait.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez expressed serious concern over reports of injured seafarers and advised all shipping companies to “exercise maximum caution” and avoid the affected region if possible. Major shipping company Maersk has already announced it is halting passage through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, citing safety reasons.

Global stock markets reacted sharply. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 initially fell by nearly 2.4%, though it recovered slightly. Wall Street looked set for a lower opening, and Sydney’s ASX 200 opened down before finishing the day flat. Gold jumped 2.8% to $5,397.10 per ounce, as investors moved toward safer assets.

The US and Israeli military strikes on Iran show no signs of stopping. Trump has outlined his possible options for handling Iran’s future, though he has refused to share full details publicly. He has suggested the conflict could last another four weeks, stating attacks will continue until US objectives are met. Even after Brent crude pulled back slightly from its peak, it remained up 7% during early trading, holding above $77 per barrel.

Many analysts now believe oil prices could easily exceed $100 per barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not restored quickly. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie noted that the disruption creates a “dual supply shock.” Not only are current exports through the strait halted, but additional volumes from the Opec+ cartel and most of Opec’s spare capacity also become inaccessible, spare capacity being a key tool for balancing the global oil market.

Even though Opec+ agreed to a modest output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, much of that still needs to move out of the Middle East by tanker. Iran itself is one of the cartel’s largest producers, pumping 4.5% of global supplies, meaning any disruption to its shipments alone would have a wide-ranging impact on the market.