A new Emerson poll has shown that two Republican candidates are leading California’s gubernatorial race. Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are now at the top of a crowded field, with 17% and 14% of the vote respectively. This shifts momentum away from a previous SurveyUSA poll that had Democrat Tom Steyer in the lead, showing just how quickly the race is changing.
The Emerson poll carries a margin of error of 3%, and shows billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer tied with Bianco at 14%, having gained 4% since March, reports Mediaite. Xavier Becerra has also made a notable jump, going from 3% to 10% between Emerson’s March and April polls. Katie Porter is sitting at 15%. Still, 23% of voters remain undecided, meaning the race is far from over and any candidate could gain or lose ground quickly.
The withdrawal of former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned from Congress amid sexual misconduct and rape allegations, has created a split in the Democratic vote. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Democrats are now dividing their support between Steyer, Becerra, and Katie Porter. With no clear frontrunner among Democrats, the party is struggling to unite behind a single candidate ahead of the June 2 primary.
Republicans are well-placed to benefit from California voters’ growing frustration with the state’s direction
A recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that most voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction. The three biggest concerns among voters are the cost of living and inflation, housing, and the state budget.
Despite being the world’s fourth-largest economy and home to the tech industry, California continues to struggle with high living costs, a homelessness crisis, and a long-running budget deficit that has left many residents frustrated.
Both Republican candidates are positioning themselves to take advantage of this frustration. Hilton, a British-American and former adviser to ex-UK Prime Minister David Cameron, is a regular commentator on Fox News. He has received Donald Trump’s endorsement, you can read more about how Trump chose his pick in California’s governor race and why it raised eyebrows.
Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, is running on a public safety platform and has openly expressed support for the US president. California uses a nonpartisan primary system where all candidates compete together, and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
With 23 Democratic candidates in the race, there is a real risk that the Democratic vote gets split too many ways, which could allow two Republicans to advance to the final round. This is the format that will play out in the June 2 primary, and Democrats are running out of time to consolidate their support.
Katie Porter, a former Democratic representative, is currently polling at 15%, but her campaign is struggling to pull clearly ahead of the pack. Becerra, who served as President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, has gained ground but his campaign is still building momentum. Steyer has been heavily running ads across the state, though it remains to be seen whether that spending will be enough to push him to the top of the Democratic field.
If two Republicans end up advancing to the November election, it would mark a major shift in California politics. The state has also been at the center of other political tensions lately, including a controversy over an ICE shooting incident in Northern California that drew significant public attention.
A Republican has not held the governor’s office since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s term, which ran from 2003 to 2011. Whether Hilton or Bianco, or both, can carry that momentum through the primary and into the general election will depend heavily on how the Democratic field sorts itself out over the coming weeks.
Published: Apr 18, 2026 01:15 pm