Harry Enten says Democrats are heading into ‘blowout territory’ in midterms, giving them a 69% chance of a House landslide

Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, told viewers on Sunday that the midterm numbers place Democrats in “blowout territory” as they try to reclaim Congress. According to Mediaite, he said he had examined hundreds and even thousands of polls and data points in the final days before the election. Enten stated that the figures, not his own view, were driving the conclusion.

He opened the segment by focusing on the House. Enten put the probability of a House blowout at 71 percent and said the chance it fails to materialize stands at 29 percent. He noted that results at the higher figure occur more often than those at the lower one. For Republicans specifically, he gave only a 2 percent chance of reaching at least 230 seats and producing their own blowout.

Enten added that the size of polling error required for Republicans to reverse the current picture has not appeared in recent cycles. He said Democrats instead hold the stronger position, with a 69 percent chance of delivering a blowout against Republicans in the House. He described that probability as a very nice one for the Democratic side.

Analyst pairs House odds with separate Senate projections

Enten then moved to the Senate, calling it the chamber many viewers watch most closely. He asked what chance exists that Democrats secure at least 52 seats. He answered with 57 percent and said that outcome would give the party a majority plus additional seats to spare.

He also supplied a figure for the opposing party. Enten stated that Republicans have a 24 percent chance of winning at least 51 seats. Combining the two probabilities, he arrived at an 81 percent chance that one side or the other finishes with room to spare. That calculation leaves a 19 percent chance the contest remains tight until the end.

Enten characterized the narrower path as one in which a single state could decide the Senate on election night. He called that possibility roughly one in five and said the more probable result is that one party gains at least one extra seat. He has previously tied those Senate odds to Democrats’ chances if Talarico wins Texas.

The remarks aired the same day President Donald Trump campaigned in Michigan. Trump’s stop was aimed at generating support for Republican candidates heading into the midterms. Enten’s analysis stayed centered on the polling totals and the probabilities they produced for each chamber.

He returned to the House figure, underscoring that the 69 percent chance applies to Democrats achieving a clear blowout there. Enten presented every percentage as a reading drawn from the data he had reviewed rather than a prediction he was making on his own. He closed by reiterating the 81 percent combined Senate probability for a decisive result by one party.