Harry Enten says Democrats have a 78% chance of winning the Senate if James Talarico wins Texas. Then he showed his odds for Talarico

Harry Enten used a Sunday CNN segment to put a number on a single state race. The network’s chief data analyst said Democrats would have a 78% chance of winning the United States Senate if James Talarico wins in Texas. He framed the contest as the clearest route for the party to take the chamber after the midterms.

According to Mediaite, Enten said Democratic odds of Senate control have been “going up like a rocket” lately, and he named Talarico as a big part of that shift. Talarico, a progressive Democrat, is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the candidate President Donald Trump prefers. Enten said a Talarico win would make Democrats heavy favorites to take the Senate from Republicans.

He opened that part of the segment with a question. “What if James Talarico actually does the impossible and turns Texas blue?” Enten said. “Well, if James Talarico actually wins in Texas, get this, he gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the United States Senate.” He also summed up the map in plain terms: flip Texas, and the party will flip the Senate, most likely.

Texas sits fourth on Enten’s list of seats Democrats need

Enten then explained why he treats Texas as the seat that could settle control. “The most likely seat to determine control of the United States Senate? It’s Texas,” he said. “Because Democrats need to flip four seats, they need to flip four seats!, and guess which seat is number four most likely to flip? It’s Texas.”

After that, he pointed to his screen. His aggregation of the polls, he said, gives Talarico a 70% chance of winning the Texas race. That 70% figure was about Talarico’s own odds, not the separate 78% figure he attached to a Democratic Senate majority if Talarico wins.

The segment landed as public polls have been unfavorable for Paxton. A Saturday survey from The New York Times showed Talarico ahead by six points.

The Times poll came after a rough stretch for Paxton. On leaked audio, he talked about the first Republican midterm convention Trump hosted and said the event did not lift the party’s numbers. “To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers,” Paxton said. “Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”

Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton’s soon-to-be ex-wife, released an ad on Saturday that urged voters to back the full Republican ticket. The GOP’s unity pitch is facing its own internal doubts, as Karl Rove says the Republican Party is being taken over by Nazis and predicts they will lose the Senate race in Texas.

She did not say her estranged husband’s name. “Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: In a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team. It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line,” she said. “Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team. That’s why I’m voting for the Republican ticket on Nov. 3. Let’s hold the line together.”

Enten closed the spending comparison with a prop, an old landline phone, and said Paxton should start calling donors. He said Talarico has spent $31 million on ads, while Paxton has spent $352,000. “No, that is not a misprint,” Enten told viewers.