Suspicious new account made $400K betting on Venezuela strikes days before they happened, and the timing raises questions

A new user on Polymarket has sparked intrigue after reportedly making more than $400,000 by betting on a U.S. military strike on Venezuela before it happened. The account, created just days ago on December 27, has drawn attention for its unusually timed activity.

According to The New Republic, the user placed wagers on only two outcomes: the U.S. invading Venezuela and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being removed from power by January 31. In a bold move, they risked $35,000 on the U.S. military action when the market pegged the odds at just 6 percent.

The payoff was enormous. In less than 24 hours, the user’s prediction came through, netting a profit of over $400,000. The timing and precision of the bets have raised eyebrows, with many observers questioning whether it was a lucky streak, insider knowledge, or something more deliberate.

The timing suggests someone had inside information

The dates make this whole situation look suspicious. According to reports, U.S. military officials first talked about bombing Venezuela on Christmas Day. But they changed their minds and decided to strike ISIS targets in Nigeria instead. After Christmas, officials waited a few more days because of bad weather.

Trump announced the strikes on Venezuela, revealing that he had captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife early Saturday morning. Remarkably, the operation remained under wraps from the media until the official announcement. 

However, the timing of the Polymarket bets suggests that someone with inside knowledge may have tipped off users about the attack in advance. This has raised questions about how such precise information made its way to the betting platform before the news became public.

This leak let someone make a lot of money. The betting pattern shows the user knew something most people didn’t. When you bet $35,000 on something with only a 6 percent chance of happening, you usually know more than the average person.

The account only betting on Venezuela-related events makes it even more suspicious. Most Polymarket users bet on many different topics. This account focused only on one specific event that was about to happen. Trump later confirmed the U.S. destroyed a major facility during the operation.

Now people are asking questions about who created this account and how they knew about the strikes beforehand. The $400,000 profit suggests this wasn’t just a lucky guess. Meanwhile, Maduro is now asking for oil talks with the U.S. after the attacks.