The United States is facing a significant challenge to its military readiness, as it will need at least three years to fully replenish its stockpiles of advanced weapons systems heavily used in the recent Iran war, ABC News reported. This situation is definitely raising some eyebrows, especially since it could leave American forces with limited firepower if a future conflict with China were to arise.
According to a new analysis released Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the weapons systems in question are Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are essential for striking targets deep inside enemy territory, along with Patriot and THAAD interceptors, crucial for defending against incoming missiles and drones.
The report states, “The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict.” That window of vulnerability, they say, will last “for several years until inventories return to their previous levels and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire.”
This timing is particularly concerning when you consider China’s stated goal of ensuring its military can take Taiwan by force if necessary by 2027
While experts see that as more of an aspiration than a hard deadline, Chinese President Xi Jinping recently warned that mishandling relations with the self-governing island could lead to the U.S. and China clashing or even open conflict.
So, what’s the holdup? It isn’t a lack of funding. The analysis actually factors in the Republican Trump administration’s historic defense budget proposal of $1.5 trillion for 2027, which dramatically speeds up spending on high-end munitions, building on efforts started during the Democratic Biden administration. There’s even bipartisan agreement in Congress to boost inventories. The CSIS report made it clear, “the problem today isn’t money, it’s time.” It simply “takes time to expand production capacity and to build these complex systems.”
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell, however, insists the military is ready. He stated that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” Parnell added, “We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have also consistently stated that the U.S. is capable of fighting any war, pushing defense contractors to accelerate munitions production. Hegseth even told lawmakers last month that military spending under President Trump will help manufacturers double or even triple their capacities.
Not everyone is quite so optimistic. Virginia Burger, a senior defense policy analyst at the Project On Government Oversight watchdog group and a former Marine officer, expressed concern. She said Pentagon officials “knew the reality of our military stockpiles and hopefully told someone, ‘Hey, if we go to this fight, even in the most conservative estimates, we are drawing down our stockpiles to a critical level.’”
Concerns about diminished stockpiles were a hot topic at recent congressional hearings. Democrats largely view the munitions supply as a damning metric against the Iran war, which President Trump launched without lawmakers’ approval. Some Republicans, on the other hand, argue the problem stems from the U.S. sending Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2022, even though many American allies also use those systems.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at CSIS who co-authored the study with research associate Chris H. Park, traced the roots of this predicament back to the end of the Cold War. After the fall of the Soviet Union in late 1991, the U.S. assumed future wars would be short and regional, requiring few high-end weapons. The Pentagon ordered relatively low numbers, and military contractors scaled down their manufacturing footprint.
Russia’s war with Ukraine, however, dramatically showed that wars can be protracted and demand extensive inventories of advanced weapons. At the same time, U.S. military strategists were already war-gaming potential conflicts in the western Pacific. Cancian noted, “The thinking started to change, but it just takes time to build inventories,” explaining that part of the challenge is bringing a complex web of supply chains and subcontractors up to speed.
Cancian, who oversaw acquisitions of military hardware at the Office of Management and Budget under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, also gave some credit to President Joe Biden’s administration for initiating conversations with the defense industry, investing in the industrial base, and ramping up production. He said, “A lot of people in the Trump administration are inclined to say that everything was terrible until they arrived, and that’s not true.” However, he acknowledged, “Now, it is true that the Trump administration really increased funding.”
The U.S. fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles at Iran, and CSIS estimates it could take until late 2030 to fully replenish the prewar inventory. Fewer than 200 Tomahawks are made a year due to small orders in the past, but manufacturer Raytheon aims to ramp up capacity to more than 1,000 per year. RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, declined to comment directly on the CSIS findings since they hadn’t seen the report yet. However, RTX did point to investments of several billion dollars to boost production, including expanding facilities in Alabama and Arizona.
For in-demand air defense systems, replacing as many as 290 THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, interceptors that shot down incoming Iranian drones and missiles could take until the end of 2029. Replenishing more than 1,000 Patriot interceptors should wrap up in mid-2029. Lockheed Martin is significantly boosting production for both systems, and THAAD deliveries “were apparently re-sequenced to prioritize U.S. needs over those of allies and partners,” CSIS noted.
Patriot deliveries, especially, pose a dilemma for the United States, balancing the need to replenish its own inventories, help Ukraine defend against Russian missile attacks, and meet the needs of 17 other countries that use the interceptor. Lockheed Martin stated it’s investing $9 billion through 2030 and “is already delivering tangible results to meet heightened munitions demand, including a new facility in Alabama announced last week along with more than 20 others across the United States.”
Despite these challenges, CSIS notes that a potential conflict with China is “not all bleak.” The U.S. military has recently showcased its capabilities against Iran, Venezuela, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The report concludes, “China is deeply aware that it has no recent combat experience and that it performed poorly in its last war, against Vietnam in 1979.” This difference in experience, the report suggests, may actually help preserve deterrence until those crucial munitions inventories are restored.
Published: May 27, 2026 07:15 pm