Asteroid Chance of Hitting Earth Is Higher Than Usual Per NASA; Warning Issued

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory and has attracted attention because it might hit Earth. Experts estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet across.

NASA currently calculates there’s a 3.1% chance it could impact Earth on December 22, 2032. While this probability is higher than similar asteroids, experts say there’s no need for immediate concern. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning on January 29, 2024, since the risk climbed above 1%.

The asteroid is made up of common materials and isn’t unusually metal-rich. The European Space Agency estimates the impact risk to be a bit lower at 2.8%. Even though this risk is higher than that of Apophis in 2004, it is noted as significant but not a crisis. If it were to hit, it could cause major local damage but is not expected to endanger the planet.

The biggest threat comes from the asteroid’s high speed, potentially reaching 40,000 miles per hour. If it enters the atmosphere, it could explode in an airburst, releasing energy comparable to eight megatons of TNT. There’s also a risk of a direct impact, especially if it’s on the larger side of estimates. The possible impact area includes the eastern Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. Experts caution against any drastic actions, like relocating people, at this stage.

Upcoming observations from the James Webb Space Telescope in March will help improve predictions about the asteroid’s path. Webb can spot faint objects, which is important since the asteroid’s route takes it near Jupiter before it comes close to Earth again in 2028. If the impact risk exceeds 10%, the IAWN will provide a formal warning and recommend safety measures for affected areas. There’s still plenty of time before the potential impact date to consider ways to manage the situation.

NASA’s DART mission in 2022 showed that it is possible to change an asteroid’s path. Other methods being looked at include using lasers for thrust, a spacecraft’s gravity to nudge it off course, or possibly even nuclear explosions as a last resort. Although the 3.1% chance is significant, experts believe the situation is controllable and not an immediate panic situation.