Democrats have a 67% shot at flipping the House, forecasters say. Now major election data analyst calls the Senate a ‘pure toss-up’

With fewer than 60 days remaining before the midterm elections, Decision Desk HQ said Monday night that control of the U.S. Senate has turned into a virtual dead heat. In a post on X, the group said its forecast now treats the Senate as a “pure toss-up” for the first time since early June.

Decision Desk HQ said the average result across 1 million simulations is still a 50-50 split in seats. The group stated that the outcome would give Republicans a narrow win because Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote.

A second post from Decision Desk HQ said the most common outcomes are now roughly even between a 50-50 tie and a 51-49 Democratic majority. 

Decision Desk HQ forecast follows Republican warnings about tight Senate races

According to Mediaite, Decision Desk HQ had given Democrats a 67% chance of winning back the House of Representatives. Until this latest forecast, the pollster had treated the Senate as safely Republican. Last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he feared Democrats would take the Senate. 

On a podcast with former Trump press secretary Sean Spicer, Cruz listed nine states he said Democrats could win. Cruz has also recently criticized Democrats on other fronts, as when he said they don’t believe in democracy after Graham Platner became Maine’s presumptive Senate nominee. 

“[With] the Senate, I’m really worried,” Cruz said. “North Carolina, the numbers are rough, Georgia the numbers are rough, but we have very competitive races in Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas. I mean, all of those races are within a couple of points of each other. So it, I hope it’s not, but it could be a really rough election.”

Some Republicans have also voiced anger that President Donald Trump has kept a tight hold on the $400 million collected by his super PAC, MAGA Inc. Trump has also made unsubstantiated claims about election integrity, such as when he accused Democrats of big cheating as California results trickled in. Trump has repeatedly criticized Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) over the failure to pass the SAVE Act.

FEC filings show MAGA Inc. spent $10 million in Texas over the weekend. Speaking to CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, GOP strategist Doug Heye said Trump “wants to spend money on himself,” rather than on other Republicans.

“He doesn’t want to give things away. He wants Republicans to earn it, so we still have The Apprentice playing out here, to some extent,” Heye said. Heye also said that when Trump tells voters “We’ve never been hotter or richer,” voters do not feel hot or rich right now.