Gen Z and Millennials are rejecting the two-party system, and the fallout could reshape elections

Young Americans are increasingly abandoning the two-party system, with more than half of Generation Z and Millennials now identifying as political independents. That marks a significant shift from earlier generations and represents a growing challenge for both major parties.

The trend is also reshaping the national picture. A recent Gallup survey found that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as independents, up from roughly one-third of the population about two decades ago, underscoring the widespread change that has become increasingly evident as frustration with institutions grows across politics, economics, and consumer policy.

As highlighted by AP News, the shift is most pronounced among younger adults. Approximately 56% of Gen Z identify as independents, compared with 47% of Millennials in 2012 and 40% of Gen X adults in 1992. Meanwhile, older generations remain more closely aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties.

The growing independent bloc is creating new pressure on both parties

Independents are increasingly concentrated in the political middle. About 47% of independents described themselves as moderate in 2025, reflecting discomfort with both major parties rather than alignment with a specific ideology, a mindset also reflected in skepticism toward proposals such as Trump’s credit card interest plan, which JPMorgan’s CFO warned could harm consumers.

By contrast, fewer Democrats and Republicans consider themselves moderate. Roughly six in ten Democrats identify as liberal, while about 77% of Republicans say they are conservative, highlighting the degree of polarization within both parties and reinforcing the sense among independents that neither side reflects their priorities.

This divide leaves party leaders facing difficult tradeoffs. Efforts to appeal to moderate independents risk alienating committed base voters, while focusing on ideological cores limits broader appeal, particularly as younger voters show growing interest in concrete policy outcomes, such as state laws forcing electronics makers to make devices easier and cheaper to repair.

In the short term, independents continue to lean toward one party or the other, and recent shifts have favored Democrats. About 47% of U.S. adults now identify as Democrats or lean that way, compared with 42% who identify as Republicans or lean Republican, reversing a three-year Republican advantage during Joe Biden’s presidency and returning Democrats to levels seen during Donald Trump’s first term.

The data suggest this edge reflects dissatisfaction rather than durable support. Independent approval of Trump has declined steadily, even as Democratic favorability remains historically low, indicating that electoral swings may be driven more by opposition than by lasting allegiance.

As a result, large and dissatisfied blocs of moderate independents may make sharp shifts in political power more common. I think the major parties must decide to broaden their appeal and not remain anchored to their bases if they want to continue to grow.