House Republicans still hold the majority, but it’s shrinking to a dangerous breaking point

Unexpected vacancies have whittled the House Republican majority down to the absolute bare minimum of 218 seats, leaving Speaker Mike Johnson with almost no room to maneuver. According to The New York Times, if every member shows up for a vote, Johnson can afford only two defections on any party-line issue.

This has been a persistent problem for House Republicans since President Trump took office in 2025. A majority this small gives individual members enormous leverage to buck leadership and makes governing difficult. Even after the GOP secured control of the House in the 2024 elections with a 220–215 edge, leaders could spare only two votes and still pass legislation.

The situation worsened with the resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and the sudden death of Representative Doug LaMalfa, reducing the split to 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. With additional special elections ahead, Johnson’s margin is expected to tighten even further.

The math keeps getting worse for GOP leadership

A special election later this month in Texas will replace Representative Sylvester Turner, a Democrat who died last year. Democrats are expected to hold the seat, narrowing the gap to 218–214 and leaving Johnson able to lose only one Republican vote on party-line legislation.

Another election on April 16 in New Jersey will fill the seat vacated by former Representative Mikie Sherrill, who was elected governor. Because the district strongly favors Democrats, Republicans are unlikely to gain ground, effectively locking in a one-vote majority.

These margins are especially damaging because most major legislation requires House votes just to set the rules for debate. Without dependable numbers, Republicans risk losing control of the floor altogether, a problem that has already complicated efforts to advance priorities like Trump’s aggressive foreign and trade agenda, including the sweeping new trade war order targeting nations doing business with Iran.

The practical result has been an unusually unproductive Congress. In 2025, the House cast the fewest votes of any first session this century. Attendance has become critical, particularly in an election year when many members are campaigning for statewide offices instead of staying in Washington.

The tight margins have also weakened Johnson’s grip on his own conference, giving outsized influence to frequent dissenters like Representative Thomas Massie. That internal instability mirrors the broader chaos surrounding Trump’s foreign policy moves, such as the backlash to his Greenland threats that prompted bipartisan lawmakers to fly to Denmark.

Trump acknowledged the bind last week at a party retreat, saying leadership cannot be “tough” with such a narrow majority. Johnson’s desperation has shown in procedural tactics, including delaying the swearing-in of Representative Adelita Grijalva after her special election win, underscoring how every single vote now matters.