The US-Israel war on Iran is racking up massive emissions, but one shocking detail shows how fast the damage is spiraling

The US-Israel war on Iran has produced 5 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in just its first two weeks, a pace that is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined. The conflict is adding an environmental dimension to the human and infrastructure toll already unfolding across the region.

The incident came to light through The Guardian, whose analysis found the conflict is effectively turning the Middle East into an environmental sacrifice zone. Patrick Bigger, research director at the Climate and Community Institute and a co-author of the analysis, said, “Every missile strike is another downpayment on a hotter, more unstable planet, and none of it makes anyone safer.”

Bigger also stated that “fossil-fuelled geopolitics is incompatible with a livable planet,” pointing to the broader structural forces driving the conflict’s environmental cost. The largest share, approximately 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, comes from the destruction of buildings.

The emissions are coming from multiple sources simultaneously

The Iranian Red Crescent has reported around 20,000 civilian structures damaged, releasing substantial embodied carbon. US heavy bombers flying from as far as western England, alongside support vessels and vehicles, burned an estimated 150 million to 270 million liters of fuel in the first 14 days alone, contributing a further 529,000 tCO2e.

Some of the most visible environmental damage has come from Israel’s bombing of four major Iranian fuel storage depots, producing dark clouds and black rain over Tehran, amid a separate dispute over who authorized the Iran gas strike that remains unresolved between Netanyahu and Trump. Between 2.5 million and 5.9 million barrels of oil burned in those strikes and Iranian retaliations on Gulf neighbors, releasing an estimated 1.88 million tCO2e.

Destroyed military hardware accounted for another 172,000 tCO2e, with the US losing four aircraft and Iran losing 28 aircraft, 21 naval vessels, and around 300 missile launchers. Munitions across more than 6,000 bombed targets contributed a further 55,000 tCO2e.

The two-week total stands at 5,055,016 tCO2e. Sustained over a full year, that rate would equal the annual emissions of a medium-sized fossil fuel-intensive economy such as Kuwait, and matches the combined yearly output of the world’s 84 lowest-emitting countries.

Fred Otu-Larbi, the study’s lead author from the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana, warned that figures are likely to climb. “We expect emissions to increase rapidly as the conflict proceeds, mainly due to the speed at which oil facilities are being targeted at an alarming rate,” he said. He added that “burning up the annual emissions of Iceland in two weeks is something we really cannot afford.”

The findings carry added weight given the state of the global carbon budget. Climate scientists estimated last June that humans could emit roughly 130 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent and still have a 50% chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C.

At the current baseline rate of 40 billion tCO2e annually, that budget runs out by 2028. Iran has also been constructing a Strait of Hormuz ship vetting system that is adding further pressure to already disrupted energy shipping routes. Bigger also cautioned that disruption to fossil fuel supplies will likely trigger further drilling, warning the war risks “hard-wiring another generation of carbon dependence.”