New data shows more Americans are now identifying as Democrats, giving the party its widest edge since 2008

The New York Times, citing Gallup, reported that more Americans now associate themselves with the Democratic Party than they did a year ago. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents hold their largest advantage over Republicans since 2008, the newspaper said.

Registered voters who identify with a party or lean toward one now give Democrats a 10-percentage-point lead, according to the Gallup figures in the report. The Times described the change as part of a broader backlash against Republicans and President Trump before the midterms.

Trump’s approval rating has remained below 40 percent for months, the article stated. Democrats also appear competitive in several Senate contests in states that previously backed Trump by wide margins, the newspaper reported. Party identification shifts do not automatically become votes, the Times noted, because independents who lean toward a party are often less engaged and less likely to turn out.

Quarterly Gallup averages show Democrats at 49 percent and Republicans at 39 percent

The two parties have traded the advantage in identification several times in recent years, according to the Times. In 2024, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents still held a slight edge.

The current Democratic lead is larger than those recent Republican advantages and comparable to the one recorded in 2020, when Joseph R. Biden Jr. won the presidency and Democrats took slim majorities in the House and Senate, the newspaper reported. Gallup data cited by the Times showed the highest marks of the past 35 years in 2006 and 2008, when 52 percent of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic.

The newest quarterly average among registered voters is 49 percent Democratic or Democratic-leaning and 39 percent Republican or Republican-leaning, the Gallup numbers in the article indicated. Each point on the chart is a quarterly average that includes both identifiers and independents who say they lean toward a party.

Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor at Gallup, said party identification moves in cycles. “When things are going well in the country, party identification shifts in the direction of the party in charge,” Jones said. “When things are going poorly, like they are now with an unpopular Republican president and people unhappy with the state of the nation, people are moving away from the party in charge.”

Jones called the pattern thermostatic public opinion. “What we are seeing now is similar to the end of the George W. Bush administration, when he was pretty unpopular,” he said. “Democrats had a big lead in party identification, which was then a prelude to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were big victories for Democrats.” 

The thermostatic pattern of Democratic momentum is a recurring political dynamic, such as when Kamala Harris urges Democrats to become too big to rig.  The current Democratic share is also close to the final quarter of the 2018 midterm cycle, when nearly 49 percent of Americans identified as Democrats, the Times reported. Democrats gained more than 40 House seats that year, the article said.

Pew Research Center data cited by the newspaper shows much of the recent Democratic gain coming from groups that had moved toward Trump, including Hispanic voters and young men and young women. This shift comes as some Republican voters express dissatisfaction, such as when a recent survey found 24 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters say they are worse off after his second term began. 

Young voters leaned Republican by one percentage point in 2024, the only time this decade that group favored Republicans, according to the Pew figures in the article. This year, the Democratic advantage among the same group is 16 percentage points. The Democratic edge among Hispanic voters has grown by nine percentage points over that span, the Times stated.