Canadian prime minister says Trump’s threats forced him to consider possibility of US military action

Relations between Canada and the United States have soured under President Donald Trump, as trade fights and annexation talk strain the alliance. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has now evaluated the remote possibility of United States military action against Canada, according to The New York Times. Carney told the outlet his government has thoroughly examined what he called extreme tail risk.

Carney did not provide specific details regarding the nature of these preparations, but he framed the planning as a standard part of his duties. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Mark Carney said. He added that it was “just risk management” and “not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare, the BBC reported. 

The United States maintains a force of more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops, whereas Canada has fewer than 200,000 personnel. The naval gap is even wider, as the United States had 65 military submarines as of 2024. However, Canada operates only four. Canada’s vast coastline and proximity to the Arctic give it a strategic position that troop numbers do not capture. Since taking office, the prime minister has increased defense spending, as the Arctic has become a bigger priority for Ottawa. 

It’s risk management all the same

President Trump has repeatedly referred to Canada as the 51st state, though he has ruled out using military force to annex it. However, he has said he would consider economic force to achieve the same goal. Earlier this week, he wrote on Truth Social that Canada is destroying itself with immigration, a claim Canadian ministers rejected.

Despite these challenges, Carney maintains that he and President Trump remain in contact, and he told the outlet the two speak frequently. “From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense that we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” Mark Carney said. He described both men as direct and called that approach more efficient.

The two leaders did not meet at the United Nations General Assembly this week, even though both attended. The gathering also saw Poland’s foreign minister ask Trump to keep a promise about American troops in Europe. Carney also recently floated Canada becoming an associate partner of the European Union, an idea Trump dismissed as laughable and a very hostile act.

The prime minister also believes a path to resume trade negotiations still exists, and he said a return to more amicable ties would benefit both nations. He noted that roughly 80 percent of trade between the two countries remains tariff-free. However, Carney did not rule out limiting energy exports to the United States, though he said Canada wants to remain a reliable partner.