Japanese teardown firm Fomalhaut, as translated by WSJ reporter Takashi Mochizuki, has taken a look at the Nintendo Switch and come away with some info, and a prediction. For one, they say that the various components inside the Switcha mount to about $257 in parts, meaning Nintendo is likely making a small profit on each console sold. They also make a pretty bold prediction, saying that the Nintendo Switch could sell 30 million units by the end of 2018.
This would put the Nintendo Switch in a very solid position among Nintendo consoles. Of course, everyone knows that the Wii U was a bit of a disaster for the company, only selling around 14 million units over its entire lifespan. This was especially troubling as its predecessors, the original Wii, sold over 100 million consoles around the globe, becoming a phenomenon for years.
The Nintendo Switch is certainly off to a good start, selling around 2 million consoles according to recent estimates. Stores are also still having trouble keeping the system in stock, with new shipments flying off store shelves as quickly as they arrive. And this is without a single holiday season under the Switch’s belt, so sales will likely go up from here, if Nintendo supports the system with solid software.
Hitting 30 million units sold by 2019 would be a tall order, but with increased production it is within reason. However, it would be a monstrous success story, as the Wii was such a popular item, and yet even it took from late 2006 to mid 2008 to reach 30 million units. The Nintendo 3DS has sold double that amount over its lifetime, which began in 2011. Likewise, the PS4, the current console generation sales winner, took from launch in 2013 to late 2015 to hit the 30 million units sold mark.
The Nintendo Switch is off to a great start though and this report can only bolster projections for the future.