Former Republican lawmaker George Santos is facing a Department of Justice investigation over some seriously suspicious trades on the prediction market site Kalshi, NPR reported. If you have been following his chaotic political career, you might not be surprised to hear that this involves him allegedly betting against his own attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address.
Back in February, Santos took to X to share his excitement about attending the State of the Union address. He even posted a video a day before the big event, telling his followers, “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys.”
Naturally, this sent traders on Kalshi into a frenzy. People were placing millions of dollars in bets on whether or not he would actually show up, and the odds of his attendance soared after his video went live. But, in classic fashion, he didn’t show up. As the president was speaking, Santos posted on X, “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” which is a pretty coarse way of saying he was stuck elsewhere. That post caused the odds of his attendance on the market to plummet instantly.
The real kicker here is what Santos didn’t disclose to the public
According to three people with direct knowledge of his trades, he had actually placed bets on Kalshi that he would not be appearing at the State of the Union. These sources suggest he misled the public and walked away with a profit in the tens of thousands of dollars thanks to that deception. Kalshi eventually detected these suspicious trades and decided to freeze his account. Two people familiar with the situation confirmed that the platform referred the case to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, both of which have opened investigations into his activity.
When reached for comment, Santos told the press, “Well, that’s news to me,” when asked about the insider trading probe. He wouldn’t even confirm whether he had a Kalshi account, telling the reporter, “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.” He even claimed he knew the co-founder of Kalshi, Luana Lopes Lara, calling her “a fellow Brazilian” and promising to call her to get to the bottom of the investigation.
However, a person familiar with the investigation stated that Santos does not actually know Lara. While Kalshi has reportedly reached out to interview Santos as part of their inquiry, he has apparently been dodging those requests. He did later post on X that his legal team is in contact with the DOJ and that he looks forward to supplying any information asked of him, calling the accusation “preposterous.”
This latest drama follows a history of fabrications that defined his time in office. Santos, who is 37, previously claimed he graduated from Baruch College in the top 1% of his class and that his mother was in the South Tower during the September 11 attacks, both of which were proven false. He also falsely claimed to be Jewish and that his grandparents escaped the Holocaust. Jonathan Entin, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University, noted, “Virtually everything that he put out about himself when he was running for office was manufactured.”
His legal troubles began in May 2023, when he was indicted on 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering, and stealing money from political donors. He was expelled from Congress in December 2023 and later sentenced to more than seven years in prison. However, he only served four months before President Trump commuted his sentence last October, calling him a “rogue” who didn’t deserve such a harsh sentence.
The situation has brought renewed scrutiny to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where people bet on everything from art auctions to military strikes. Lawmakers are increasingly concerned about how insider information could be used to defraud other bettors. We have already seen cases like the Army Special Forces soldier who was criminally charged in April for allegedly using classified information to win over $400,000 on a bet regarding the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Published: Jun 3, 2026 04:30 pm