The GOP was banking on a safe Senate hold. Now Majority Leader John Thune admits, “I do worry” about losing it

Republicans entered the 2026 midterm cycle looking like they had a comfortable grip on the Senate. Now, with Election Day inching closer, even Senate Majority Leader John Thune is acknowledging that keeping control of the chamber is far from guaranteed.

Per Local10, Democrats have expanded the number of states they believe they can compete in. Meanwhile, some races that once looked like easy Republican defenses have become much less predictable. The fight for the Senate is now shaping up as a much broader contest than Republicans initially expected.

Speaking to South Dakota’s KELOLAND News, Thune said, “I’m a realist. I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now.” His statements mirror the GOP’s worries about retaining their seats in the upcoming midterms.

Democrats suddenly have more ways to win

Democrats initially needed to focus on flipping Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio while protecting their own vulnerable seats. Now, Iowa and Texas have also entered the scene, giving Democrats more potential routes to the majority.

Texas may be the biggest surprise. Democrat James Talarico emerged as the challenger to Republican nominee Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. Democrats and their allies have since poured money into the race, while Republicans had backed Cornyn as the stronger general-election candidate.

The changing map has also forced Republicans to spend more money. Overall Senate advertising projections have climbed to roughly $3.4 billion, according to AdImpact, up from the $2.8 billion projection made late last year.

Trump’s political standing is adding another complication for Republican candidates. An AP-NORC poll found that just 32% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy. Voters continue to cite high prices and other economic concerns for this result.

Republicans still have reasons to be confident, particularly given their advantages in some of the states Democrats would need to flip. But Thune’s admission makes one thing clear: the party is no longer treating its Senate majority as something it can simply take for granted.