James Talarico is now leading both Republican Senate candidates in Texas, a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994

A new poll has shown Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both Republican candidates in the Texas Senate race. The poll was conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), a non-partisan public opinion research group, among 1,865 likely general election voters from April 17 to 20, with a margin of error of 2.5%.

According to Mediaite, the poll shows that Talarico holds a 44% to 41% lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and a 46% to 41% lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton. This is a notable development, as Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

The Democratic Party is also feeling encouraged by a recent state senate election in Texas, where a Democrat beat a Republican in a district that had heavily favored Donald Trump in 2024. That result has added to the optimism within the party about their chances in the state.

The Republican primary fight between Cornyn and Paxton is hurting both candidates

The ongoing primary battle between Cornyn and Paxton has likely played a role in their low poll numbers. The two have been attacking each other sharply, with Cornyn hitting Paxton over corruption scandals and marital infidelity, while Paxton has accused Cornyn of being out of step with the MAGA base. His primary win has also rattled wealthy conservative donors, with Talarico’s rise alarming billionaire mega-donors who were not expecting a serious Democratic challenge in Texas.

Donald Trump has not yet endorsed either Republican candidate for the Texas Senate race, and his silence is being felt on both sides. In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Cornyn spoke about his hope for Trump’s support, saying that every time he talks to the president, he cites polls and shows that he’s following the race closely. Reports suggest that Trump dangling his endorsement over the Texas runoff is tied to a voting bill that currently does not have enough votes to pass.

Trump’s silence may have already hurt Cornyn’s campaign. Turning Point USA, a conservative youth organization closely aligned with the White House, endorsed Paxton, causing concern among Cornyn’s supporters. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, reacted by saying that “whoever thought that was a good idea really doesn’t understand the headwinds that they have to deal with.”

On the Democratic side, the primary between Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett has also become heated, with supporters clashing on social media over various accusations. Despite the tension, polls still consistently show that Republicans hold the overall advantage in the state, regardless of who wins either primary.

Trump has responded to the broader midterm picture by vowing to spend “whatever it takes” to help Republicans hold both the House and Senate. Democrats, who are on defense in many races across the country, see the Texas Senate race as a chance to force Republicans to divert attention and money to a state they would normally consider safe.