Trump’s approval rating hits its lowest during his second term, and it majorly has to do with this one geopolitical fumble

President Trump has hit a new low for his second term, as his approval rating dropped to 37 percent in the latest poll released Monday. This significant dip in public support reflects a broader trend of dissatisfaction with the administration, particularly regarding the ongoing military conflict in Iran.

The New York Times/Siena poll, which was conducted from May 11 to May 15 and included 1,507 respondents, shows that 59 percent of those polled now disapprove of the president’s job performance. This is a noticeable shift from January, when the same polling showed his approval rating sitting at 40 percent, with 57 percent of respondents expressing disapproval.

It is clear that the administration is facing a major hurdle with the war in Iran. The data highlights a deep divide, as 64 percent of those surveyed believe the military offensive was the wrong decision. Only 30 percent of respondents voiced agreement with the president’s choice to initiate the conflict. Even more telling is the sentiment regarding the potential success of the mission. When asked about the administration’s ability to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, 50 percent of participants said they believe the effort will be unsuccessful, while only 40 percent expressed optimism about a successful outcome.

The economic and strategic consequences of the war are clearly weighing on the minds of the public as well

Many people are questioning whether the conflict is worth the investment, with 55 percent of those surveyed stating that the war will not be worth the costs. Only 21 percent believe the endeavor justifies the expense. This frustration is likely compounded by practical issues, as some lawmakers have pointed to rising gas prices resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With the president recently warning Iran that the “clock is ticking” after rejecting a peace proposal, the tension is only increasing.

Looking at the demographic breakdown of the poll, the challenges for the administration are widespread. Trump continues to see higher approval among men, who registered at 45 percent, compared to just 29 percent among women. In fact, 66 percent of women surveyed expressed disapproval of his job performance. The numbers are even more stark when looking at different racial groups. Nonwhite voters are heavily critical, with nearly three-quarters disapproving of his performance. Specifically, 83 percent of Black voters and 71 percent of Hispanic voters disapprove of the president’s work.

Age also plays a factor in how these numbers shake out. The president finds his strongest support among those aged 45 to 64, with 45 percent approval, and those 65 and older, who registered 43 percent approval. Despite these pockets of support, the overall trend is undeniably negative for the administration. While 82 percent of Republicans still stand behind the president, the broader electorate is moving in the opposite direction. Independents are particularly critical, with 73 percent stating that launching the war was the wrong choice.

Political pressure is mounting in Washington as well. There is a growing number of Republicans in Congress who are reportedly considering joining Democrats to support a resolution under the 1973 War Powers Act. This move aims to end the conflict, a goal that seems to align with the 52 percent of survey respondents who say they do not want military operations against Iran to resume. The lack of a clear plan for the war, coupled with the stalled peace talks, has left many questioning the current strategy.

As the administration continues to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, the margin of error for this survey remains at 2.8 percentage points. It is a tough position for the president to be in, especially with the public clearly signaling that their confidence in the war effort is at a low point. Whether the administration can change the narrative or if this disapproval rating will continue to slide remains to be seen.