Steve Bannon is predicting that Ken Paxton will secure a victory over James Talarico in the race to replace Senator John Cornyn, though he admits it will be a difficult path for the Republican nominee, The Hill reported. Paxton successfully ousted Cornyn from the race after receiving a late endorsement from President Trump, bringing an end to the incumbent’s 24-year congressional career.
Bannon did not hold back when discussing the Democratic challenger. He stated, “I just don’t know if Texas is ready to vote in the United States Senate, a guy that looks like he plays with dolls. I just don’t think that’s going to happen.”
Despite this jab at Talarico, Bannon remains realistic about the intensity of the upcoming general election. He mentioned that he told Politico he expects a win of five-plus points, but he also emphasized that the race will be a total grind. Bannon noted that Democrats are expected to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the contest, making it a very tough fight for the GOP.
President Trump remains confident that his chosen candidate will prevail with ease
In a post to Truth Social, Trump wrote, “John will remain my friend for a long time to come, as we both watch Ken become a fantastic, common sense Senator, one who is respected by all. His opponent, Alfred E. Neuman, may be the worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen.”
The primary race has been incredibly heated and expensive. Data from AdImpact shows that the Texas GOP race has become the most expensive primary and priciest primary runoff on record. Cornyn saw roughly $20 million spent in his support, while about $5 million was directed toward Paxton. The Republican establishment largely backed Cornyn, while the MAGA grassroots movement threw its support behind Paxton. This divide has led to concerns about whether GOP voters will be able to fully unite for the November election.
Democrats are feeling a mix of anxiety and hope as they look toward November. While Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, some believe that the messy GOP primary has created a unique opening. Texas-based Democratic strategist Joel Montfort suggested that the primary has been a great advantage for his party. He noted that because Cornyn spent time highlighting every bad thing Paxton has done, that information is fresh in voters’ minds and provides Democrats with plenty of ammunition.
The polling reflects a very competitive environment. A survey from the Barbara Jordan Institute for Policy Research at Texas Southern University, released earlier this month, showed support for Talarico and Paxton tied at 45 percent among registered voters. Furthermore, the Cook Political Report adjusted its rating of the race from likely Republican to lean Republican following the Tuesday runoff.
Some observers believe that the timing of the President’s endorsement, which came after early voting had already begun, could cause friction among Republicans. Jon Mark Hogg, co-founder of the 134 PAC, suggested that some Republicans who were not already inclined to support Paxton might simply stay home. He noted that staying home is essentially as good as a vote for Talarico.
Despite the optimism, Democrats are aware of the challenges ahead. They have experienced heartbreak in past cycles, including the losses of Beto O’Rourke in both his 2018 Senate bid and his 2022 gubernatorial run. Internal party politics also threaten to serve as a distraction. Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder is currently fending off a challenge for his chairmanship from Monique Alcala. While some party members are calling for these internal fights to be put on the back burner, others are frustrated with the current state of party operations.
As the race moves forward, both sides are preparing for a massive financial battle. Talarico has maintained a significant cash advantage, and more money is expected to enter the fold now that the runoff has concluded. Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, said, “Talarico raised $27 million, leads in the polls, and has never once had his own staff call the FBI on him. We’ll take those odds.”
Ultimately, the intensity of the primary has set the stage for a high-stakes general election. Texas GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo described the potential matchup as a bloodbath, noting that both sides will spend a lot of money tearing the other side down. Whether the Republican base will fully coalesce around Paxton remains the central question as the state heads toward November.
Published: May 28, 2026 05:15 pm