Gallup finds 50% of Americans identify with or lean Democratic, and the margin is the widest since 2009

Half of the adults in a new Gallup survey said they are Democrats or lean that way, a share the pollster has not recorded at this level against Republicans since early 2009. The quarterly reading lands as both parties head toward November’s midterm elections, when control of Congress is on the ballot.

Fifty percent said they are Democrats or “lean more” toward the Democratic Party. Thirty-nine percent said they are Republicans or lean Republican. Gallup said that the 11-point gap is the widest Democratic margin since the first quarter of 2009, and the largest Democratic identification edge in the series since that period.

The figures come from telephone interviews with random samples of 3,000 adults age 18 and older in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Gallup reported a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Party identification, the generic ballot, and the campaign message

A separate look at the race for Congress, from NBC News polling averages, also shows Democrats ahead. The outlet said Republicans have not closed a 9-point Democratic advantage, which it called the party’s “largest lead yet in the race for Congress.”

NBC News reported that its congressional average stands at 52% to 43% after an adjustment to a likely-voter scale. The report said, “The congressional average, which stands at 52% to 43% after adjusting to a likely voter scale, measures whether Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans before things like individual races and candidates come into play.”

The network said single polls often move around, while an average smooths those swings and limits the pull of outlier surveys. It said that is why the averages were published now, with a heavy run of polls coming out late in the cycle, and that the figures can also show how Republicans, Democrats, and independents see President Donald Trump and the fight for Congress.

Polling analyst Nate Silver, speaking on a recent episode of the Lovett or Leave It podcast, said a Republican hold looks unlikely. “This is one of the more consistent elections that I’ve tried to forecast, in that sense that like, every indicator is bad for Republicans,” he said. “Except maybe the outside money, that is the one thing they have going for them.”

Trump has offered a direct incentive tied to the result. He has promised $5,000 to every adult if the GOP wins.

Republicans have cast the midterms as a fight against socialism and communism. Seven congressional candidates are backed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat running for Senate in Michigan, does not call himself a democratic socialist, though Republicans have described him that way.

At a rally in Ohio last week, Trump told supporters the public polls would not decide the outcome. “They’re in for a big surprise. It’s very simple: You gotta get out and vote. You gotta get out. You gotta vote for these guys,” he said. “If you do that, we’re gonna win and we’re gonna win big.” He closed the thought with, “And we’re gonna shove it up their a–, okay?”