Gas was under $3 before the Iran war. A market expert just named the year it gets back there, and Trump shouldn’t be president by then

CNN market expert David Goldman predicts it will take at least six years for gas prices to fall below $3 per gallon in the US. This forecast visibly surprised co-host Pamela Brown during an appearance on The Situation Room, who responded by asking, “I’m sorry, did I hear you correctly? Did you say 2032?”

According to Goldman, for gas to fall below $3 per gallon, the price of Brent crude oil would first have to drop below $70 per barrel. He stressed that there are many obstacles standing in the way of that happening, even if President Donald Trump were to strike a deal to end the Iran war.

One major obstacle is that it takes two to four weeks just to restart oil production in Iran, and even longer to rebuild the country’s pre-war production capacity. “You need to fix your facilities because so much of them have blown up, literally, in the war,” Goldman said, pointing to the world’s largest LNG port as an example. “That’s going to take about two years to come back online. That’s no joke.”

The oil market’s own timeline points to 2032, and that number is hard to argue with

Goldman noted that the oil market is currently pricing in 2032 as the next time oil prices will reach those lower levels again. Trump, however, remains confident that gas prices will “drop lower than they were before” the war, saying, “As soon as it’s over, you’re going to see gasoline and oil drop like a rock.” 

Meanwhile, Trump’s cabinet meetings show a pattern of flattery and Biden attacks rather than focused policy discussions, raising questions about how seriously the administration is tackling the energy crisis. The Iran war has been a major driver of the current energy crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed and over 1.2 billion barrels of oil disrupted. 

This has caused a serious tightening of the energy market, made worse by rising demand during the summer driving season. Analysts warn that $5 gas is still a real possibility this summer. “Even in the best case, a fundamental tightening of the market is baked in the cake,” said Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group. 

“There is this brutal, inexorable math that can’t be changed by a deal.” McNally still expects Brent crude oil futures to climb back to $120 or even $130 a barrel. According to CNN, US gas prices have leveled out recently at around $4.50 a gallon, compared to $2.98 when the war started. 

The all-time high of $5.02 a gallon was set in June 2022, and analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month, prices could break that record. On the political front, Thomas Massie’s 2028 presidential filing signals that energy policy and government spending could become major campaign issues heading into the next election.

JPMorgan expects that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Brent crude will average $104 a barrel in the third quarter and $98 in the fourth quarter of this year. Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said that within weeks or months of a deal, the strait can be cleared of mines, ships stuck in the Persian Gulf can leave, new ships can enter, and oil production can restart.

However, Book cautioned that repairing damaged facilities, fully restoring production, and restocking depleted inventories will likely take much longer – many months or even years. “I don’t think anybody is expecting to return to averaging $60-a-barrel oil anytime soon,” Book told CNN. “It will take a while for supply to come back on stream.”