The big question for gaming in 2017 will be whether or not Nintendo Switch ends up being a hit or a flop, with the console looking to improve greatly on the ill-fated Wii U. While it’s going to take a while following the console’s launch until we get an idea of where it’s going in terms of sale, games data and market research company SuperData have put out their prediction for the console’s first year of sales.
According to them, the Nintendo Switch will sell 5 million units by the end of 2017, which is a slow start but one that they predict will get the ball rolling in a positive direction. They say that “Launching much earlier in the year than its predecessors, we expect the Switch to initially appeal mostly to the loyal fanbase, before a broader, more mainstream audience adopts it.” Their global sales distribution for the console has sales at 45% in North America, followed by Europe at 35% and Japan at 12%.
They continue by saying that “The biggest challenge for Nintendo is to convince console gamers to purchase the Switch as a second device, as many have already committed to a PlayStation 4 (53.4 million install base, worldwide) or Xbox One (26 million).” Considering that both the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One both have established fanbases that are enjoying a steady stream of great games, it remains to be seen whether or not fans of those consoles will be interested in adding the Switch to their collection.
Finally, they also note that the relatively high asking price for the console and the fact that it does not come bundled with a game is another barrier of entry for consumers, especially when the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are discounted and come with a free game.
Nintendo Switch launches on March 3rd and costs $299.99. Whether it ends up being a success or not is anyone’s guess, but it’s nonetheless an interesting piece of hardware that should be a lot of fun to use.