Prosecutors say Robinson’s DNA was on the trigger and the casings, but the defense just found a hole in the ballistics evidence

New details have surfaced in the case against Tyler Robinson, charged with the murder of Charlie Kirk, who founded Turning Point USA and was shot dead on September 10 last year at Utah Valley University. As highlighted by LADbible, Robinson’s defense team is now arguing that the bullet which killed Kirk cannot be conclusively matched to the rifle prosecutors have tied to Robinson. The unsealed court filing centers on ballistics evidence, specifically the recovered bullet and its connection to the alleged weapon.

The defense filing notes that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives was “unable to identify the bullet recovered at autopsy to the rifle allegedly tied to Mr. Robinson,” a .30-06 calibre Mauser model 98. While a .30-06 calibre cartridge case was confirmed as having been fired from that rifle, a “.30-caliber class deformed/damaged bullet jacket fragment” recovered during the autopsy “could not be identified or excluded” as having been fired from the same weapon. Examiners deemed the findings “inconclusive” because the markings on the bullet jacket fragment were consistent with “numerous makes and models” of firearms.

Ballistics expert Steven Howard noted that inconclusive bullet matches are not unusual with high-powered rifles, explaining that the velocity and energy involved frequently damages bullets to the point where a definitive match becomes unrealistic. He also stressed that ballistics comparison is only one component of a broader investigation.

The DNA evidence remains the prosecution’s strongest card

Prosecutors are not relying on the bullet fragment alone. They contend that Robinson’s DNA was found on the trigger of the rifle, on the fired cartridge casing matched to the weapon, and on two unfired cartridges, placing him in direct contact with the gun and its ammunition. The Virginia murder-suicide case involving a former lieutenant governor similarly saw firearm evidence play a central role in reconstructing events after the fact.

The ballistics analysis in this case involves the ATF’s National Integrated Ballistic Information Network, or NIBIN, which captures high-resolution images of cartridge casings to identify unique markings left by a firearm and compares them against a national database. When a casing match is found, it can connect a weapon to multiple crimes and suspects. The system has been in use since the 1990s and, as of October 2024, has generated over 1,096,000 leads across 6,600 partner agencies. In fiscal year 2024 alone, it acquired 658,000 pieces of evidence across 378 NIBIN sites.

The current case illustrates the limits of ballistic matching when a bullet is severely deformed upon impact, a scenario that occurs more frequently with high-powered rifle rounds than with handguns. It is a dynamic that, amid rising scrutiny of firearm evidence in high-profile shootings, defense attorneys have increasingly sought to exploit in court. The casing match to Robinson’s rifle remains intact; it is the bullet recovered from Kirk’s body that investigators could not pin to a single weapon.

Robinson is due in court today, April 17, for a hearing over whether cameras will be permitted in the courtroom during his trial. A preliminary hearing has been scheduled for May 17.