Trump was convinced the Iran war would be a quick victory. Now he is reportedly searching for a scapegoat

President Trump is weighing a return to military strikes against Iran even as he has already described the conflict as a success for the United States. According to The Atlantic, people close to the discussions say advisers previously told him the fighting would wrap up long before the midterm elections. With those elections approaching, he has begun looking for someone to hold responsible for the war’s political costs.

Advisers have said a new set of attacks could start soon after voting ends on Tuesday. Trump has also been asking allies how Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have performed. The two men have been central to his advice on the war. Early on, they spoke openly about positive results, though neither has held a press conference since May.

Some officials in the White House do not hold Hegseth in high regard. People near Trump said the defense secretary describes the war in consistently upbeat terms. One outside adviser put it this way: “Hegseth is good at telling the president what he wants to hear.” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell rejected that view. He said Hegseth always supplies the president and senior leaders with the complete operational picture and called any claim to the contrary “dead wrong.”

Officials present military choices as scrutiny falls on defense leadership

Trump’s frustration has increased because the war has hurt Republican standing ahead of the midterms. White House officials have concluded he is unlikely to stage another strong political recovery. The House appears lost to Democrats, and the Senate may be as well.

Trump has complained that his public messaging is not getting through. According to two advisers and one official, he now sees the Iran conflict as part of the problem and is looking for a person to blame among those who once said a war with Iran would be short and decisive.

Last week Hegseth and Caine briefed Trump and Vice President Vance at the White House on steps that could let Trump announce a successful outcome. Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads U.S. Central Command and oversees Middle East operations, joined the meeting. Trump must still decide whether the proposals and the people who brought them can improve the situation.

The options on the table include limited strikes lasting only a few hours, campaigns of several days, or operations stretching across multiple weeks, current and former defense officials said. Trump could also keep the existing naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz while threatening further action, or he could choose to step back.

People who favor renewed strikes argue that economic pressure is already effective and that more military activity would push Iran toward talks. A longer effort could hit Iranian air defenses and then infrastructure. U.S. officials would describe the targets as serving both civilian and military purposes, though civilians would remain at risk and the strikes could conflict with international rules on warfare. A separate idea calls for several days of attacks focused on Iran’s nuclear program. 

A heavy campaign still might not produce concessions from Tehran. The Iranian government could endure the strikes and highlight its ability to absorb them. After a weeks-long U.S. and Israeli effort that began in late February, later short strikes only strengthened Iranian determination and led Tehran to attack U.S. forces and allies in the region. Any new campaign would also draw down munitions stocks further.

Michael Cohen, who directs a Stimson Center project that studies the costs of American military interventions, said, “If those strikes don’t work, you’ve now sort of exposed the limits of those strikes.” He added, “You keep hitting them, and they don’t back down. So what are you going to keep doing? Keep escalating?”

The plans do not address Iranian-backed groups in the region, especially the Houthis in Yemen, who have carried out recent attacks on Saudi Arabia. Ending those proxy forces was one of the goals Trump stated for the war. Fresh strikes could also push oil prices higher and add costs for the United States and its partners. American drivers are already feeling the strain, with gas hitting $4.55 a gallon.

One official said Trump’s recent shift away from support for Ukraine was partly driven by a desire for additional Russian energy supplies to reach global markets and reduce the effects of possible Middle East action. Iran retains the ability to respond, and any retaliation could widen the fighting. 

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut called the portions of the plans he reviewed “insane.” He said, “It will lead to devastating escalation, and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” Outside advisers and an administration official said Trump has not yet ordered a resumption of strikes. If he decides to move ahead, he could hold the choice tightly until the final moment.